South Korean Politics and Elections

Progressive Fusion Power

Note:  This is an editorial of mine in the Korea Times.

Korea Times, July 15, 2007

By Andy Jackson

A recent meeting between six of the leading progressive presidential hopefuls makes it a little more likely that the left will be able to field a single major candidate for the December election through combining the nomination process of several parties into an ``open primary'' in which the public can vote for the nominee.

The meeting included four people largely considered to be the frontrunners among progressives; former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu, former Uri Party Chairman and Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, and former Prime Ministers Lee Hae-chan and Han Myeong-sook. Former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae and Rep. Kim Hyuk-kyu also attended.

The logic of such a fusion candidacy is pretty simple and compelling. If the progressive parties field two or more candidates, they will have little chance of beating whoever gets the Grand National Party (GNP) nomination.

So the urge to merge is strong and, along with the GNP mudslinging war and Roh Moo-hyun's quest for a potentially legacy-saving inter-Korean summit, will likely be one of the dominant political stories of the rest of the summer.

Fusion is nothing new to Korean politics. Most famously, Kim Dae-jung won the presidential election in 1997 in part because of the support of the Kim Jong-pil and his nominally conservative United Liberal Democrats along with a huge assist from spoiler Rhee In-jae.

The six candidates who participated in the meeting clearly have an interest in an open united primary as long as they believe they will have a fair chance at the nomination. Sohh, Chung, Lee and Han each have their own constituencies and would want to make sure that those supporters can be represented in the nomination process.

For Sohn, that means an open primary with non-party members allowed to vote for the nomination. He polls strongly among independents, so he would clearly benefit by having non-party members participate. Lee, who outpolled Sohn among Uri party members in the latest survey by the polling firm Realmeter, would just as clearly benefit by making sure that Uri Party members and activists can participate in the nomination process.

An open primary would be the best way to make sure that leaders of the momentarily ascendant Centrist United Democratic Party cannot block some Uri party activists and their supporters from participating in the primary.

As with most things, the devil is in the details. Who can vote in the primary? Who will be allowed on the ballot? Who gets to decide the answers to these questions? Those questions will have to be answered to most participants' satisfaction before any merger or open primary can proceed. The problem is that many of the important players have different goals.

Of course, it is one thing for presidential candidates to want an open nomination process and another altogether for the parties to agree to one. Party leaders have their own agendas.

They would prefer to formally unify Uri, the CUDP and progressive civic groups into a pan-progressive party rather than hold an open primary in a temporary progressive alliance. A united party would form a majority in the National Assembly and be better prepared for next year's legislative races.

Of course, talk of a united progressive party begs the question of who would lead and set the rules for the new party's nomination process.

Despite its well-publicized fall from public grace, Uri still generally outpolls the CUDP and has more elected officials as members. So, a strait merger of the parties would essentially be absorption of the CUDP by Uri under a new name.

To counter that perceived threat, CUDP Co-Chairman Park Sang-cheon wants Uri to disband and its members join the CUDP individually. Naturally, Uri Party leaders do not think that is such a good idea and want an equal partnership in any merger. Uri and CUDP leaders met July 8 to iron out their differences but could not come to an agreement.

Within that context, the meeting of the six candidates can be seen as a way of pressuring the parties into agreeing to an open primary quickly. Having an open primary would lessen the pressure to engage in the arduous work of fusing the various progressive parties and groups into a single organization before the December 19 presidential election.

If the progressive candidate wins the election, creating a united progressive party would simply be a matter of rallying around their new standard bearer in the race.

However, if their candidate loses the election, progressives will find themselves just as disorganized in December as they are today but with only four months left to get ready for the National Assembly elections in April. That is a recipe for a GNP near-sweep of legislative seats almost everywhere outside of the southwestern Jeolla provinces.

Progressive party leaders are going to have to decide how much they are willing to gamble on winning the Blue House before deciding on an open primary. What's best for Sohn and Lee might not be what is best for the rest of the Korean left.

Andy Jackson teaches American government in the Lakeland College bridge program at Ansan College in Gyeonggi Province.

Election Hype of Summit

Korea Times, June 24, 2007

By Andy Jackson

Former President Kim Dae-jung, who earned the Nobel Peace Prize largely because of his summit with Kim Jong-il in 2000, has called on President Roh Moo-hyuyn to hold a second summit by the middle of August.

Uri Party Chairman Chung Sye-kyun added his name to a growing chorus of progressive voices calling for an inter-Korean summit on or before the August 15 Liberation Day celebrations.

For his part, Roh says that the summit cannot take place without a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. But what constitutes a resolution is open to interpretation. Economic assistance to North Korea has largely continued (although at reduced amounts) despite missile and nuclear tests.

The Roh administration restarted fertilizer shipments in March, despite Pyongyang's failure to close down its nuclear facilities, and is preparing to resume rice aid soon. Given that track record, it would not take too much for Roh to declare that the circumstances were right for a summit.

In an interview with the Korean daily Hankyoreh, Roh said that he would be willing to have a summit meeting with Kim Jong-il even if there were only ``a few months'' left in his term.

That would seem to open the door for a summit as late as November or December, just before the presidential election. It is not clear how the public would take such a ``December surprise'' just before the election.

Members of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) believe it is important enough to regard a potential summit meeting with concern. They have declared that the proposed summit is little more than a political move designed to sway voters by showing progress with Roh's engagement policy with North Korea. For its part, the Uri Party strongly backs a pre-election summit.

But a summit would not be the slam dunk that many seem to believe it would be.

Pyongyang agreed to the 2000 summit only after it had secured $500 million from the Hyundai Group, including $100 million of which can only be described as bribes (for which six men were convicted in 2003).

Given that it is already getting hundreds of millions of dollars a year in aid from Seoul, it is anybody's guess what additional demands they would make before agreeing to a summit with Roh.

Then there is the question of location. During the 2000 summit, Kim Jong-il promised to make a return visit to South Korea. Given that he would not receive the same kind of welcome that Kim Dae-jung received in Pyongyang, it is doubtful that Kim Jong-il would agree to honor his pledge.

Gaeseong is being mentioned by various figures, including former unification minister Chung Dong-young in a speech last April, as the best place for a second summit. So the South Korean public may once again see their leader going to the north.

However, the image of the South Korean President once again going to Kim Jong-il, perhaps with cash-in-hand, will likely strike many Korean voters as too sycophantic. At some point the South Korean people will have to see some reciprocity from Pyongyang or it will turn against the engagement policy altogether.

That time might be now. In a recent poll commissioned by The Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times, 68.8 percent of respondents staid that economic aid to North Korea should be reduced or stopped altogether. At this point, the political goal of a South-North summit may be to change the Korean public's minds about engagement with Pyongyang rather than to live up to the public's expectations.

If the North Korean regime really wants to help progressives out in the upcoming elections, as its recent statements and conduct would seem to indicate, another summit alone will not do the trick.

Even agreeing to a summit without payment up front would not be enough. What is needed is a real concession on nuclear weapons or human rights. Even something as minor as Pyongyang allowing companies in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex to pay their North Korean workers directly rather than sending the money to the North Korean government would help.

President Roh also needs to understand that reality or he may very well be surprised at the reaction of the Korean public when he returns from North Korea.

Andy Jackson teaches American Government in the Lakeland College bridge program at Ansan College, Gyeonggi Province.

Time for Sohn Hak-kyu to Commit to Left

Note:  This is the first in what I hope will be a regular series of articles in the Korea Times ahead of the Presidential election in December and the National Assembly races next spring (April?).  Also, A friend taught me how to link directly to individual Korea Times articles, which I will do from now on.

Korea Times, June 3, 2007

By Andy Jackson

Former Gyeonggi Province Governor Sohn Hak-kyu is laying the foundation for a run as a fiscal conservative and ``pro-unification’’ progressive. While taking the middle way, Sohn has criticized both the left and right, calling them ``regressive and ineffective.’’ He is seeking a centrist political alliance to propel him into Cheong Wa Dae.

We have seen this before. It was the same strategy tried by former Prime Minister Goh Kun. Alas, Goh floundered despite his initial popularity and he was forced to give up his ambition for the presidency in January.

Soon enough, Sohn will learn the same lesson that Goh learned: The center doesn’t win elections by itself. The center is what candidates fight over after they have secured their base on the left or right. That is why true centrist parties are so rare.

The right is going to back Lee Myung-bak or Park Geun-hye, both political heavyweights of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP). Whomever of those two emerges from the party primary race is going to get more or less the unified support of conservatives.

Sohn’s bol