Latest polls show GNP with big lead

JoongAng Daily, April 2, 2008

With the National Assembly elections a week away, the conservatives are poised to grab a big majority of the seats, several recent surveys showed yesterday.

The liberals, by contrast, are not likely to win even 100 seats, the number needed to block attempts to revise the Constitution, the surveys showed.

Voters next Wednesday will choose 245 of the 299 seats in the legislature. The rest will be decided based on the proportions each party wins. On April 9, voters will cast two ballots - one for a lawmaker and another for a party.

The conservative Grand National Party candidates were winning 145 districts, while the liberal United Democratic Party candidates were favored in 71, according to the analysis. The survey is based on a joint poll by the JoongAng Ilbo and YTN, conducted from Saturday through Monday, and another poll by Media Research and Korea Research. A JoongAng Ilbo poll conducted in late March and surveys by political parties were also factored in.

Grand National candidates held wide leads in 118 districts and a small lead in another 27 districts. If the party wins those races, and another 30 seats from proportional representation, President Lee Myung-bak’s party will capture a majority.

In contrast, the United Democratic Party is in a clear lead in 48 districts and in a close race in 23 districts. Even if the party manages to win 15 proportional seats, the UDP would only hold 90 in the legislature.

The analysis showed the Grand Nationals were leading in 79 percent of the districts in the capital region. In 2004, by contrast, the party won only 29 percent of those seats.

Independent candidates are leading in 15 districts, including seven in Gyeongsang and two in the capital region. The Liberty Forward Party led nine districts, mostly in the Chungcheong region, while the minority parties led in five districts.


By Shin Chang-un JoongAng Ilbo [myoja@joongang.co.kr]