Note: This is an editorial of mine in the Korea Times.
Korea Times, July 15, 2007
By Andy Jackson
A recent meeting between six of the leading progressive presidential hopefuls makes it a little more likely that the left will be able to field a single major candidate for the December election through combining the nomination process of several parties into an ``open primary'' in which the public can vote for the nominee.
The meeting included four people largely considered to be the frontrunners among progressives; former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu, former Uri Party Chairman and Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, and former Prime Ministers Lee Hae-chan and Han Myeong-sook. Former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae and Rep. Kim Hyuk-kyu also attended.
The logic of such a fusion candidacy is pretty simple and compelling. If the progressive parties field two or more candidates, they will have little chance of beating whoever gets the Grand National Party (GNP) nomination.
So the urge to merge is strong and, along with the GNP mudslinging war and Roh Moo-hyun's quest for a potentially legacy-saving inter-Korean summit, will likely be one of the dominant political stories of the rest of the summer.
Fusion is nothing new to Korean politics. Most famously, Kim Dae-jung won the presidential election in 1997 in part because of the support of the Kim Jong-pil and his nominally conservative United Liberal Democrats along with a huge assist from spoiler Rhee In-jae.
The six candidates who participated in the meeting clearly have an interest in an open united primary as long as they believe they will have a fair chance at the nomination. Sohh, Chung, Lee and Han each have their own constituencies and would want to make sure that those supporters can be represented in the nomination process.
For Sohn, that means an open primary with non-party members allowed to vote for the nomination. He polls strongly among independents, so he would clearly benefit by having non-party members participate. Lee, who outpolled Sohn among Uri party members in the latest survey by the polling firm Realmeter, would just as clearly benefit by making sure that Uri Party members and activists can participate in the nomination process.
An open primary would be the best way to make sure that leaders of the momentarily ascendant Centrist United Democratic Party cannot block some Uri party activists and their supporters from participating in the primary.
As with most things, the devil is in the details. Who can vote in the primary? Who will be allowed on the ballot? Who gets to decide the answers to these questions? Those questions will have to be answered to most participants' satisfaction before any merger or open primary can proceed. The problem is that many of the important players have different goals.
Of course, it is one thing for presidential candidates to want an open nomination process and another altogether for the parties to agree to one. Party leaders have their own agendas.
They would prefer to formally unify Uri, the CUDP and progressive civic groups into a pan-progressive party rather than hold an open primary in a temporary progressive alliance. A united party would form a majority in the National Assembly and be better prepared for next year's legislative races.
Of course, talk of a united progressive party begs the question of who would lead and set the rules for the new party's nomination process.
Despite its well-publicized fall from public grace, Uri still generally outpolls the CUDP and has more elected officials as members. So, a strait merger of the parties would essentially be absorption of the CUDP by Uri under a new name.
To counter that perceived threat, CUDP Co-Chairman Park Sang-cheon wants Uri to disband and its members join the CUDP individually. Naturally, Uri Party leaders do not think that is such a good idea and want an equal partnership in any merger. Uri and CUDP leaders met July 8 to iron out their differences but could not come to an agreement.
Within that context, the meeting of the six candidates can be seen as a way of pressuring the parties into agreeing to an open primary quickly. Having an open primary would lessen the pressure to engage in the arduous work of fusing the various progressive parties and groups into a single organization before the December 19 presidential election.
If the progressive candidate wins the election, creating a united progressive party would simply be a matter of rallying around their new standard bearer in the race.
However, if their candidate loses the election, progressives will find themselves just as disorganized in December as they are today but with only four months left to get ready for the National Assembly elections in April. That is a recipe for a GNP near-sweep of legislative seats almost everywhere outside of the southwestern Jeolla provinces.
Progressive party leaders are going to have to decide how much they are willing to gamble on winning the Blue House before deciding on an open primary. What's best for Sohn and Lee might not be what is best for the rest of the Korean left.
Andy Jackson teaches American government in the Lakeland College bridge program at Ansan College in Gyeonggi Province.
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