South Korean Politics and Elections

Parties in Fierce Battles Outside of Strongholds

Donga Iblo, April 3, 2007

In the 17th general elections, the Grand National Party had a mere 0.4 percent of votes in the Jeolla provinces.

Although the party has candidates in all 31 districts of the Jeolla region, as of now, not one of their candidates is likely to be elected there. Though recent polls show one of their candidates in Gwangyang, South Jeolla Province, ranking second, support still lags far behind the leading candidate.

The conservative ruling party got one candidate elected in Gunsan, North Jeolla Province in the 15th general elections in 1996 when the party was then called the New Korea Party. Since then, however, the party has failed to elect a single candidate in the Jeolla provinces.

The focus of much attention is whether the GNP will be able to record double-digit approval ratings in the region. In the previous 17th general elections, the party’s support was 0.4 percent. Most recently, the party’s then-presidential candidate, President Lee Myung-bak, received 8.9 percent of the region’s votes.

The United Democratic Party is in a neck-and-neck race in two constituencies in the Yeongnam region (Gyeongsang provinces).

If the UDP can elect two candidates in the southeastern part of Korea, this will be a big victory for a party that has recently seen defeats. The party’s presidential candidate lost in last year’s presidential election, and the party is expected to come short of its target of 100 seats in the upcoming general elections.

Recent surveys show two UDP candidates in a close contest in Saha-eul, Busan and Gimhae-eul, South Gyeongsang Province, former President Roh Moo-hyun’s hometown. Meanwhile, three to four are running in second place in recent polls, though none of them are within range of winning.

The UDP’s predecessor, the Uri Party, won four seats in the region in the 17th general elections, following a backlash to the attempted impeachment of President Roh.

The Liberty Forward Party wants to change its image as a regional party.

The LFP is doing its utmost to get a seat outside the Chungcheong provinces, as it is criticized for being a one-region party. Although the leaders of the party, including party head, Lee Hoi-chang, are looking for opportunities elsewhere, the best the party is doing now is in Daegu and Gangwon, where two of their candidates are in second place.

The Pro-Park Alliance is fighting desperately outside Yeongnam where Park Geun-hye’s influence is not as strong. According to recent polls, its candidates are in close contests in Yeoju-Icheon and Ansan Sangnok-eul, Gyeonggi Province. The chairman of the party, Seo Cheong-won, listed as the No. 2 proportional representation candidate of the party, said, “Our party will make Park Geun-hye the country’s next president in five years.”

Will many independent candidates be elected?

In the 14th general elections, 21 independents were elected. Since then, their numbers have declined to 16 seats in the 15th, five in the 16th and two in the 17th. Experts say, as the country’s party system stabilizes, the number of independents usually declines under a single-seat electoral system.

However, recent public opinion polls show independents leading in roughly 17 constituencies, while 10 candidates are within the margin of error behind leading candidates. Many of them who failed to receive nominations from their former parties are running in the Gyeongsang and Jeolla provinces.

It is too early to say whether elected independents will help overcome regionalism in Korea, as they are likely to return to their former party, once elected.

[Analysis] Upcoming National Assembly elections to reshape South Korean politics

GNP likely to dominate, but voters still want government power kept in check

The Hankyoreh, February 10, 2008

The 18th National Assembly election is just two months away. The April 9 election will be held less than four months after the presidential election and about a month after the presidential inauguration slated for February 25, meaning that the upcoming election is not expected to be free from the influence of the whirlwind created by Lee Myung-bak.

The overall flow of the National Assembly election is moving between the durability of the conservative forces and the division between the reformists and the progressives. The conservative Grand National Party, the party of the president-elect, is expected to dominate the National Assembly election after Lee Myung-bak takes office. A number of observers think that the nation’s political geography will swing toward conservatism just like Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party did after that country’s September election.

However, amid growing controversy over the activities of the president-elect’s transition team, opinion polls have indicated that the general public will also seek to restrain what could become an overwhelming force. How this shift is reflected in the forthcoming parliamentary election is likely to be a determining factor in the election results.

It is generally expected that the approval ratings for a president-elect and his party peak when a new administration is inaugurated, but the figures for President-elect Lee Myung-bak and the GNP dipped downward in January. The slight drop is largely attributed to the confusion over a package of new policies presented by the transition team.

In the presidential election held on December 19, President-elect Lee Myung-bak finished in first place in 197 of the nation’s 248 cities and towns. Chung Dong-young of the liberal United New Democratic Party and independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang occupied the top positions in 43 and eight cities and towns, respectively.

But interesting results emerge if the number of votes won by each candidate according to city are converted into the number of local electorates and then the proportional number of seats to be won in the National Assembly is divided by the number of votes. The results would be 236 seats for the GNP (local, 209, and proportional, 27), 46 for the current majority UNDP (local, 31, and proportional, 15), and 12 for Lee Hoi-chang’s newly-created Liberty Forward Party (local, 3, and proportional, 9). Such calculations are, of course, speculative as, in reality, voters will elect candidates by district in April’s parliamentary election.

However, if support for individual political parties creates a large enough gap, the significance of choosing a candidate could be rendered meaningless. In a recent poll on political parties conducted by The Hankyoreh, the GNP won 49.8 percent support, while the UNDP received 10.7 percent. In the upcoming parliamentary election, the GNP could set a new record, following previous record wins in provincial elections in 2006 and the presidential election in 2007.

Public support for keeping government power in check is also expected to have an influence on the election. A considerably high number of voters seem to favor this over government stabilization policies. In a poll conducted by The Hankyoreh on February 2, 48.5 percent of the respondents chose government stabilization as a priority for candidates hoping to be elected as lawmakers, while 43.4 percent wanted candidates who would keep the government in check. In a survey executed by the daily Munhwa Ilbo, the figure was 60.7 percent for stabilization and 40.8 percent for keeping the government in check.

In the National Assembly election, a candidate who obtains the most votes wins the election in every electorate. As a result, the gap in the number of seats won will be bigger than the gap in approval ratings for political parties in highly competitive metropolitan areas.

When summing up the percentage of votes obtained by candidates from the different parties in the 2004 parliamentary election, the Uri Party, the ruling party at the time and the predecessor to the UNDP, got 42.87 percent of the vote in Seoul, while the GNP got 41.30 percent. However, 32 lawmakers from the Uri Party and 16 from the GNP were actually elected. In Incheon, nine lawmakers from the Uri Party, or 44.68 percent of the vote, and three lawmakers from the GNP, or 39.98 percent of the vote, won election. In Gyeonggi Province, the figure is 35 from the Uri Party, or 45.71 percent, and 14 from the GNP, or 40.66 percent. If such a tendency continues this year, it is expected that the UNDP will be defeated in all constituencies in the metropolitan areas.

The candidate nomination process is a persistent problem for all of the parties. The UNDP thinks it can win in its traditional strongholds if it can attract supporters by reforming its nomination process in the metropolitan areas. The GNP has been struggling with its nomination process as well. A recent dispute between Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye over whether candidates with corruption convictions would be allowed to run in the election threatened to divide the party.

It will become a matter of some concern if the ultra-conservative Liberty Forward Party wins 20 seats, enabling it to form a large enough contingent to negotiate on the Assembly floor. The LFP’s approval rating in its strongholds of Daejeon and the Chungcheong provinces is almost the same as that of its approval rating in other regions. There is, however, an unusual aspect. About 42.8 percent of the residents in these regions support the idea of government stabilization, while 51.6 percent support the idea of keeping the government in check. This means that any party able to absorb voters who support the latter will occupy a considerable number of assembly seats. In the Chungcheong provinces, the number of available seats is six for Daejeon, 10 for South Chungcheong Province and eight for North Chungcheong Province. The LFP is influential in South Chungcheong Province in particular. At the time of the last year’s presidential election, Lee Hoi-chang won 33.23 percent of the vote in South Chungcheong Province, compared to the 34.26 percent obtained by Lee Myung-bak. Lee of the LFP placed first in eight cities: Gongju, Boryeong, Yeongi, Buyeo, Seocheon, Hongseong, Cheongyang and Yesan.

It is likely that the LFP will be able to rally a significant amount of support in the Chungcheong provinces. If the GNP’s inner conflict over its nomination process continues, the LFP could be expected to benefit.

During the 2004 parliamentary election, the minority Democratic Labor Party owed much of its success to the proportional representation system of voting. The DLP secured up to eight seats by obtaining 13 percent of the vote under this system, and the party won in two local constituencies as well.

A considerable number of voters would like to see the emergence of a reputable progressive party, but the outlook for the DLP in the upcoming election is not good. The DLP is divided into two factions, one pursuing self-sustaining policies as well as maintaining pro-North Korean position in inter-Korean relations and reunification issue, and the other supporting equality-based policies. The situation could change, however, if the party can quickly put an end to its factional feuding and establish itself as a populist party.

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