South Korean Politics and Elections

Parties in Fierce Battles Outside of Strongholds

Donga Iblo, April 3, 2007

In the 17th general elections, the Grand National Party had a mere 0.4 percent of votes in the Jeolla provinces.

Although the party has candidates in all 31 districts of the Jeolla region, as of now, not one of their candidates is likely to be elected there. Though recent polls show one of their candidates in Gwangyang, South Jeolla Province, ranking second, support still lags far behind the leading candidate.

The conservative ruling party got one candidate elected in Gunsan, North Jeolla Province in the 15th general elections in 1996 when the party was then called the New Korea Party. Since then, however, the party has failed to elect a single candidate in the Jeolla provinces.

The focus of much attention is whether the GNP will be able to record double-digit approval ratings in the region. In the previous 17th general elections, the party’s support was 0.4 percent. Most recently, the party’s then-presidential candidate, President Lee Myung-bak, received 8.9 percent of the region’s votes.

The United Democratic Party is in a neck-and-neck race in two constituencies in the Yeongnam region (Gyeongsang provinces).

If the UDP can elect two candidates in the southeastern part of Korea, this will be a big victory for a party that has recently seen defeats. The party’s presidential candidate lost in last year’s presidential election, and the party is expected to come short of its target of 100 seats in the upcoming general elections.

Recent surveys show two UDP candidates in a close contest in Saha-eul, Busan and Gimhae-eul, South Gyeongsang Province, former President Roh Moo-hyun’s hometown. Meanwhile, three to four are running in second place in recent polls, though none of them are within range of winning.

The UDP’s predecessor, the Uri Party, won four seats in the region in the 17th general elections, following a backlash to the attempted impeachment of President Roh.

The Liberty Forward Party wants to change its image as a regional party.

The LFP is doing its utmost to get a seat outside the Chungcheong provinces, as it is criticized for being a one-region party. Although the leaders of the party, including party head, Lee Hoi-chang, are looking for opportunities elsewhere, the best the party is doing now is in Daegu and Gangwon, where two of their candidates are in second place.

The Pro-Park Alliance is fighting desperately outside Yeongnam where Park Geun-hye’s influence is not as strong. According to recent polls, its candidates are in close contests in Yeoju-Icheon and Ansan Sangnok-eul, Gyeonggi Province. The chairman of the party, Seo Cheong-won, listed as the No. 2 proportional representation candidate of the party, said, “Our party will make Park Geun-hye the country’s next president in five years.”

Will many independent candidates be elected?

In the 14th general elections, 21 independents were elected. Since then, their numbers have declined to 16 seats in the 15th, five in the 16th and two in the 17th. Experts say, as the country’s party system stabilizes, the number of independents usually declines under a single-seat electoral system.

However, recent public opinion polls show independents leading in roughly 17 constituencies, while 10 candidates are within the margin of error behind leading candidates. Many of them who failed to receive nominations from their former parties are running in the Gyeongsang and Jeolla provinces.

It is too early to say whether elected independents will help overcome regionalism in Korea, as they are likely to return to their former party, once elected.

[Analysis] Upcoming National Assembly elections to reshape South Korean politics

GNP likely to dominate, but voters still want government power kept in check

The Hankyoreh, February 10, 2008

The 18th National Assembly election is just two months away. The April 9 election will be held less than four months after the presidential election and about a month after the presidential inauguration slated for February 25, meaning that the upcoming election is not expected to be free from the influence of the whirlwind created by Lee Myung-bak.

The overall flow of the National Assembly election is moving between the durability of the conservative forces and the division between the reformists and the progressives. The conservative Grand National Party, the party of the president-elect, is expected to dominate the National Assembly election after Lee Myung-bak takes office. A number of observers think that the nation’s political geography will swing toward conservatism just like Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party did after that country’s September election.

However, amid growing controversy over the activities of the president-elect’s transition team, opinion polls have indicated that the general public will also seek to restrain what could become an overwhelming force. How this shift is reflected in the forthcoming parliamentary election is likely to be a determining factor in the election results.

It is generally expected that the approval ratings for a president-elect and his party peak when a new administration is inaugurated, but the figures for President-elect Lee Myung-bak and the GNP dipped downward in January. The slight drop is largely attributed to the confusion over a package of new policies presented by the transition team.

In the presidential election held on December 19, President-elect Lee Myung-bak finished in first place in 197 of the nation’s 248 cities and towns. Chung Dong-young of the liberal United New Democratic Party and independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang occupied the top positions in 43 and eight cities and towns, respectively.

But interesting results emerge if the number of votes won by each candidate according to city are converted into the number of local electorates and then the proportional number of seats to be won in the National Assembly is divided by the number of votes. The results would be 236 seats for the GNP (local, 209, and proportional, 27), 46 for the current majority UNDP (local, 31, and proportional, 15), and 12 for Lee Hoi-chang’s newly-created Liberty Forward Party (local, 3, and proportional, 9). Such calculations are, of course, speculative as, in reality, voters will elect candidates by district in April’s parliamentary election.

However, if support for individual political parties creates a large enough gap, the significance of choosing a candidate could be rendered meaningless. In a recent poll on political parties conducted by The Hankyoreh, the GNP won 49.8 percent support, while the UNDP received 10.7 percent. In the upcoming parliamentary election, the GNP could set a new record, following previous record wins in provincial elections in 2006 and the presidential election in 2007.

Public support for keeping government power in check is also expected to have an influence on the election. A considerably high number of voters seem to favor this over government stabilization policies. In a poll conducted by The Hankyoreh on February 2, 48.5 percent of the respondents chose government stabilization as a priority for candidates hoping to be elected as lawmakers, while 43.4 percent wanted candidates who would keep the government in check. In a survey executed by the daily Munhwa Ilbo, the figure was 60.7 percent for stabilization and 40.8 percent for keeping the government in check.

In the National Assembly election, a candidate who obtains the most votes wins the election in every electorate. As a result, the gap in the number of seats won will be bigger than the gap in approval ratings for political parties in highly competitive metropolitan areas.

When summing up the percentage of votes obtained by candidates from the different parties in the 2004 parliamentary election, the Uri Party, the ruling party at the time and the predecessor to the UNDP, got 42.87 percent of the vote in Seoul, while the GNP got 41.30 percent. However, 32 lawmakers from the Uri Party and 16 from the GNP were actually elected. In Incheon, nine lawmakers from the Uri Party, or 44.68 percent of the vote, and three lawmakers from the GNP, or 39.98 percent of the vote, won election. In Gyeonggi Province, the figure is 35 from the Uri Party, or 45.71 percent, and 14 from the GNP, or 40.66 percent. If such a tendency continues this year, it is expected that the UNDP will be defeated in all constituencies in the metropolitan areas.

The candidate nomination process is a persistent problem for all of the parties. The UNDP thinks it can win in its traditional strongholds if it can attract supporters by reforming its nomination process in the metropolitan areas. The GNP has been struggling with its nomination process as well. A recent dispute between Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye over whether candidates with corruption convictions would be allowed to run in the election threatened to divide the party.

It will become a matter of some concern if the ultra-conservative Liberty Forward Party wins 20 seats, enabling it to form a large enough contingent to negotiate on the Assembly floor. The LFP’s approval rating in its strongholds of Daejeon and the Chungcheong provinces is almost the same as that of its approval rating in other regions. There is, however, an unusual aspect. About 42.8 percent of the residents in these regions support the idea of government stabilization, while 51.6 percent support the idea of keeping the government in check. This means that any party able to absorb voters who support the latter will occupy a considerable number of assembly seats. In the Chungcheong provinces, the number of available seats is six for Daejeon, 10 for South Chungcheong Province and eight for North Chungcheong Province. The LFP is influential in South Chungcheong Province in particular. At the time of the last year’s presidential election, Lee Hoi-chang won 33.23 percent of the vote in South Chungcheong Province, compared to the 34.26 percent obtained by Lee Myung-bak. Lee of the LFP placed first in eight cities: Gongju, Boryeong, Yeongi, Buyeo, Seocheon, Hongseong, Cheongyang and Yesan.

It is likely that the LFP will be able to rally a significant amount of support in the Chungcheong provinces. If the GNP’s inner conflict over its nomination process continues, the LFP could be expected to benefit.

During the 2004 parliamentary election, the minority Democratic Labor Party owed much of its success to the proportional representation system of voting. The DLP secured up to eight seats by obtaining 13 percent of the vote under this system, and the party won in two local constituencies as well.

A considerable number of voters would like to see the emergence of a reputable progressive party, but the outlook for the DLP in the upcoming election is not good. The DLP is divided into two factions, one pursuing self-sustaining policies as well as maintaining pro-North Korean position in inter-Korean relations and reunification issue, and the other supporting equality-based policies. The situation could change, however, if the party can quickly put an end to its factional feuding and establish itself as a populist party.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

GNP Feuds Over Timinig of Candidate Selection

Korea Times, January 3, 2008

By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter

Rep. Park Geun-hye of the Grand National Party (GNP) Thursday urged President-elect Lee Myung-bak to start the selection of party candidates to run in the National Assembly elections in April before his inauguration on Feb. 25.

Park told reporters that the party should follow the same time schedule as the 2004 elections.

``In 2004, candidate selection started in mid-January and I assumed the party leadership after the selection was completed,'' said Park who was narrowly defeated by Lee in the party's presidential primary race last year.

Park's reaction came amid the growing discord between President-elect Lee's confidants and aides of Park over the party's schedule for candidate selection.

Lee has said the selection should come after his government reorganization plan and the nomination of key officials gets approval from the Assembly, which would be after he takes office.

His remarks triggered objections from Park and her close aides.

They said the schedule delay indicated that Lee and his followers were trying to dominate the party nominations for the parliamentary elections, party sources said.

``Rumors have it that Lee's aides created a secret task force outside the party, which has already started candidate selection,'' Rep. Yoo Seong-min said in a radio interview.

Yoo, a member of a GNP faction led by Park, said he and her other supporters felt that they should not wait until the President-elect makes a decision on the campaign schedule.

Yoo said the GNP leaders should start the selection without delay as the party platform states.

He indicated that like-minded lawmakers could take collective action if party leaders do not take follow-up measures soon.

The GNP platform states that members of its Supreme Council, the top decision-making body of the party, are entitled to make the nominations.

Rep. Kim Moo-sung joined the attack. Kim said the time overlap of the transition team activities and candidate selection was not a compelling reason for the delay.

Kim said Supreme Council members should convene a meeting to discuss the campaign schedule soon and make a decision in a transparent manner.

GNP floor leader Ahn Sang-soo, a confident of Lee, said it was inevitable for the incoming President to influence the candidate selection as his opinion should be reflected in it.

hkang@koreatimes.co.kr

Roh Wants to Limit Rights of Lawmakers

Korea Times, July 17, 2007

By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter

President Roh Moo-hyun Tuesday called for amending the Constitution to introduce a parliamentary system of government, a runoff election in the presidential race and a change in National Assembly elections.

In an article posted on the Website of Cheong Wa Dae, Roh also called for limiting of presidential amnesties and the privilege of exemption from liability for lawmakers in speeches at the National Assembly.

The parliamentary system of government can minimize conflicts between the government and parliament and prevent a lame duck presidency, Roh said.

Roh wrote the article on the occasion of the 59th Constitution Day, which marks the last legal holiday this year.

He reiterated the need for revising election-related laws to allow the President to engage in election campaigns, defying calls from the nation's election watchdog for him to stay neutral in politics.

Roh said if a broad debate on constitutional reform takes place, whether the nation should adopt the parliamentary system is one option that can be discussed.

He then stressed the need to overhaul the parliamentary electoral system to resolve regionalism-based politics, which he said was ruining the country.

In the 2004 elections, the Grand National Party won 52. 3 percent of eligible votes in the Gyeongsang provinces but captured 60 of 66 seats available there. The Uri Party, meanwhile, won 32 percent of the votes in the Gyeongsang region, but garnered only four seats, he said.

The ruling camp has called for the election of two or more lawmakers from each district to replace the current system of electing one legislator.

``It is necessary for the president to offer his opinions in a responsible manner on controversial issues on national affairs, particularly during an election period.

``It is in the interest of the people that different political groups compete with each other in a fair manner,'' Roh said. ``If state affairs are an issue, it's natural for the president to be allowed to give his opinions about them.''

In June, the National Election Commission (NEC) twice ruled that Roh's comments in public forums on presidential hopefuls from the main opposition Grand National Party violated the Election Law, citing a provision that bans public officials from engaging in political activity that could influence elections.

However, Roh rejected the ruling and subsequently filed a petition with the Constitutional Court over the NEC rulings. The court is scheduled to announce its review of the petition before July 22.

gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr

‘Mr. Outspoken’ Praises Roh for FTA

Korea Times, April 3, 2007

By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter

A free trade agreement (FTA) struck between South Korea and the United States on Monday has reconciled political enemies.

Amid widespread positive responses to the conclusion of the accord, unusually gleeful voices from senior opposition party lawmakers have attracted public attention.

Rep. Chough Soon-hyung of the minor opposition Democratic Party said yesterday he admired President Roh Moo-hyun for his determination to give the go-ahead to the top negotiator to clinch the accord with the U.S.

The president's decision is especially honorable in that he risks undermining his political support from farmers and civic groups, he said in an interview.

He said he himself shared the view that Korea has no choice but to seek an FTA with the world's largest economy to make the domestic economy grow.

``The fact that the deal entails a winner and loser puts the president in trouble,'' he went on.

``Therefore it was not easy for him to have the chief negotiator reach an agreement when the stakes were so high.''

Rep. Chough has long been nicknamed ``Mr. Straightforward'' or ``Mr. Outspoken'' for the courageous political actions he has taken during his sixth-term career as legislator.

The lawmaker played a leading role in the impeachment campaign targeting President Roh to give up the job in 2004, when he served as chairman of the DP.

The failed campaign dealt him a big political blow and he failed to win a seat in the 2004 elections. He succeeded in being re-elected to the Assembly in the by-election last year.

The veteran lawmaker also played a key role in vetoing the nomination of Chun Hyo-sook as president of the Constitutional Court last year.

During an Assembly confirmation hearing, he argued against the nomination by citing an article of Constitutional Law. The article reads the president should appoint one of the nine ``incumbent'' justices of the court as its president. Chun quit her position as a justice of the court right before Roh appointed her as nominee for the Constitutional Court chief.

Rep. Chun Yu-ok of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) supported the agreement. She praised the negotiation team, saying, ``I am aware that the negotiators have been dedicated to defending the best interests of Korea during the time-consuming sessions, and history will certainly remember their dedication.''

An outspoken politician, Chun has expressed her explicit opposition to a variety of governmental policies, but has maintained her support for a trade pact with the U.S.

hkang@koreatimes.co.kr