Flying Yangban

Think tank director: Seoul shouldn't be a sucker to the Norks

Peter Beck, Northeast Asia project director at the International Crisis Group, had a nice little chat with Yonhap recently.  Beck sees relations between the US and Korea becoming strained over the (anti-unification) Gaeseong Industrial complex.  Here is the interview:

"Finding a common approach (between Seoul and Washington) to dealing with North Korea is increasingly difficult. Kaesong is a perfect example," Beck said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency.

He said it would be impossible for South Korea to achieve its goal of including goods made in Kaesong in its free trade agreement with any U.S. government.

There is across-the-board concern even among American labor unions about the transparency of North Koreans' working conditions in the complex, which also damages Washington's campaign to put financial shackles on Pyongyang, he said.

"Kaesong is not just an area for the best hope for North-South cooperation but it is also one of biggest potential points of conflict between Washington and Seoul," he said.

Given North Korea's propensity for trying to drive wedges between the US and Korea, Beck thinks they will eventually (I'd say once again) play the 'we are one race' card (read on):

Economist: Delaying unification makes it more costly

One of the standard lines of the people opposing Korean unification (all the way up to AntiUnification Minister Chung Dong-young) is that a quick unification of the Koreas is prohibitively expensive and the North must be brought up to the South's level of development before unification is possible. 

Well, the studies of a Korean professor for the Brookings institute (a liberal think tank based in Washington) says that not only is unification delayed unification denied, it is also unification made more expensive.  Let's get straight to the meat:

According to Hwang’s estimates, the cost of unification would have been US$312 billion in 1990, US$777.6 billion in 1995 and US$1.204 trillion in 2000.

(The article does not state if those are constant dollars.)

That does not include the billions that South Korea has already thrown down the black hole of 'development aid' to the North.

'Our children who lost their lives to the enemy are being treated like criminals'

If anyone wants to know how the policies of the current administration warps Korea's internal politics, check this out:

In the battle on June 29, 2002 -- one day prior to the closing ceremony of the Korea-Japan World Cup -- six sailors were killed and 18 wounded when a North Korean patrol boat that had crossed over the northern line of control ambushed a South Korean naval vessel. The bereaved have spent the last three years in an atmosphere where it was difficult to even grieve. Nervous government officials, worrying that the incident might cast a pall over the Sunshine Policy, even warned the families to please be quiet.

During the first two remembrance ceremonies in 2003 and 2004, not one high-ranking government official, let alone the defense minister, showed up. The person who did send condolence letters to the bereaved was not a Korean government official but the commander of the U.S. Forces in Korea. A request by the families to move the bullet-riddled South Korean patrol boat to the Yongsan War Memorial, to show people that here were men who gave their lives for the country, were ignored. “Our children who lost their lives to the enemy are being treated like criminals who tried to ruin the atmosphere of intra-Korean reconciliation,” one family member said.

I assume that there will be another ceremony this June.  I don't expect President Roh himself to go to events like that but the ministry of defense should be more attentive to the needs of its people.   I don't know how events like this effect moral in the military but it can't be good. 

What if 72,000 North Korea workers came south?

I just came across a piece in the Manila Bulletin Online.  Here is the summery blurb:

The Ministry of Labor of South Korea has allotted 14,000 jobs for Filipino workers out of the 72,000 quota given to six countries under the Employment Permit System (EPS) for 2004 and 2005, the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) announced yesterday.

That brought on a flashback to my very first post (and my pet dead horse) about having North Korean workers come to the ROK to take some of those 3D jobs that Korea is currently giving to folks from Russia, China and South Asia.

Here is a bit of what I said then:

North Korean workers in the ROK wouldn't send that much money home, but their contribution to their home country could be substantial. There are currently over 350,000 foreign workers in South Korea. If 200,000 of them were replaced by North Koreans and those North Korean workers sent 550,000 won (about half a factory worker's pay) home each month, the North Korean economy would gain 1,320,000,000,000 won a year (or about $1,147,826,176; I did the math).  (Yangban note, that was when the won was about 1,200 to the dollar).

Let's redo the math based on the new figure.  If 72,000 North Korean workers sent half of their monthly pay home, the North Korean economy would gain $469,565,220.96 per year.*  For an economy the size of North Korea's, that would not be too shabby.  Furthermore, North Korean workers would learn how to work in modern industrial facilities and function in a real market economy. 

It would certainly be better than the current exchanges between the Korea's like the Mount Geumgang tours and the the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, which offer much less opportunity for North Korean workers.  Workers at Gaeseong will only make about $50 a month compared to the $1,050 a month they would make in the south.

I'm all for genuine exchanges between the Koreas. For example, not only would I like to see the rail link between North and South reestablished, I would also like to see thousands of Koreans crossing everyday on business or tourism.

A call for reciprocity

Of course, having 72,000 North Koreans coming to the ROK would not be without problems.  There would most likely be a pretty good number of North Korean spies sent into the country (although a pretty good number are probably already here).  Also, there may be some Fights between the visitors and the locals.

But the biggest problem would be that Pyongyang would most likely refuse the chance to give 72,000 of its subjects  a chance to make some much-needed cash.  They may fear what might happen if too many of their people found out what life in the outside world was really like.  Well, the cat is already clawing its way out of the bag and Pyongyang is going to have to learn to live with many of its people knowing that North Korea is less than a paradise compared to the South.

There is little the North has to offer (and even less that its has offered except threats) to match the handouts that Seoul keeps sending North.  One thing it does have is an underpaid and underutilized Korean-speaking workforce.

If I remember correctly, Grand National Party (GNP) chairwoman once said that Korea should seek reciprocity in its dealings with the North.  I would really like to see the GNP call for 100,000 employment permits to be offered to North Koreans.  Aside from being the right thing to do, it would give them a way to outflank Uri on the 'inter-Korean brotherhood' front.  It might also put some heat on both Korean governments to do something that would actually bring the Korean people closer together.

*72,000 x 550,000 x 12 x 0.0009881 (the current exchange rate)

Hold on there, cowboy (Korean soldier accidentally fires at Norklandia)

Today is a lovely, snowing first day of school for most colleges in Korea (March second being the traditional starting date).  I hope to get a real post in a little later in the day when classes are done.

In the meantime, I thought you should know about the latest Korean provocation against the Norks:

"During a security check for weapons, one bullet was mistakenly fired toward the North in the eastern sector of the Military Demarcation Line," a South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman said, referring to the border.

Sounds plausible, although just maybe it could have been a young man filled with the spirit of unification who wanted to get things started (not really, but it sounds much sexier than 'in was an accident.').  In any case, the Norks are pissed:

"The gun fire ... proves that the South Korean military authorities are deliberately scheming to aggravate inter-Korean relations," the North's official KCNA news agency said.

They are demanding an official apology from Seoul.

The Norks are right for once, an apology is due.  While the Koreas might still be technically are war, firing across the DMZ (whether deliberately or by accident) is a no-no.  I expect that Seoul will be issuing the apology sooner rather than later.

Meet the new Minister of Anti-Unification

(Day Six of the Korean Ministry of of Information and Communications ban)

OOP (Uridang) leader Chung Dong-young has been named the new Minister of Unification, replacing Jeong Se-hyun. As it is now run, the main responsibilities of the Ministry of Unification seem to be to provide moral support to the Pyeongyang ruling clique, pump money into the North Korean government's coffers and generally do all it can to prevent reunification while giving the appearance of bringing the Korea's together.

Chung is the perfect guy for the job. Looking at him in action, you get the feeling that you are looking at a Korean version of Bill Clinton. Homeboy is a smooth operator and has Clinton's poofy hair. In fact, his undisguised ambition is to be the next guy in the Blue House.

Of course, nobody will actually expect him to do the one thing that his office is responsible for, unifying Korea, so it is the perfect gig for a politician who wants to stay in the news without actually being held responsible for anything.

So we can expect several years of Chung's grandstanding leading into the 2008 elections. Of course, since neither Korean government wants unification, we can also expect that he won't actually DO anything to help unify Korea.

But it will be fun to watch his hair.

North Korean defector-run radio station being shut down due to threats

Less than one month after starting its broadcasts, Radio Free NK is going to get shut down.

"Hello. We're starting up Free NK from today from Seoul, the capital of the Republic of Korea. Toward freedom, democracy and unification."

"For the Rodong Shinmun (the North's official newspaper) to say this and that about the South Korean presidential impeachment is really too funny."

"If democratic politics could be realized in the North as it is in the South, one would have to recognize that the nation, its leaders and the Workers Party would have been impeached hundreds of times over."

With those words, Radio Free NK started its Internet broadcasts to help educate people about the nature of the Pyongyang regime.

But apparently, somebody doesn't want to them to be heard. Groups of young men have come to the building housing the radio station, owned by the Institute of North Korea Studies, to hassle the staff there. I would say "protest" but guards at the building have had to drive the men out, which certainly puts this beyond a simple protest.

The station chief and the staff of the institute have also received threatening phone calls. It has gotten to the point were the head of the Institute has canceled Radio Free NK's lease and they will shut down by the end of the month unless they can find a new home.

Northern-born announcer Jeong Ju-hwa of Radio Free NK (Chosun Ilbo pic)

I went to that bastion of liberty, The Hankyoreh, to see want they thought about this campaign of intimidation against a group who only seek to freely express their opinions. Nothing yet, but I'm sure they have something on the campaign of intimidation in their Korean-language section that will be translated soon.

However the Korea Herald has a piece on it. It states, among other things, that the Norks have been complaining about the station in inter-Korean meetings (as alluded too in the Chosun Ilbo cartoon below):

At the 14th Inter-Korean ministerial talks, Northern delegates shout at their Southern counterparts, "If the 'Free NK Radio' broadcasts by defector reactionaries continue, there won't be any further rounds of talks, comrades! Got it?!" Free NK Radio, an Internet radio station run by North Korean defectors in Seoul, may shut down due to threats made by unidentified individuals against the owner of the building where it's located.

But the Herald article at least ends on a positive note:

"North Korean defectors and South Korean sponsors donated money so that we could buy expensive facilities for broadcasting in their hopes of informing North Koreans of the outside world and thus contributing to democratization of the North," Kim said. "No matter what difficulties we face, we will never stop this."

I hope so, because their message is needed. It seems like South Koreans (at least most of those under 35) are deluding themselves about what Kim Jong-il and his boys are all about. Radio Free NK is at least a little bit of a reality check for those kiddies.

Unification through shopping

While the governments in Seoul and Pyongyang are engaged in anti-unification deals disguised as "reconciliation," some people in North Korea are getting a taste of the real thing through that ubiquitous Korean product; bootleg videos.

It seems that more North Koreans are being exposed to products and culture from the ROK. In a sign that Pyongyang might be losing some control, video tapes and CDs are slipping into the country:

....One Sinuiju customs official was caught letting in a large number of South Korean videos into North Korea early this year. Several officials, including the party secretary, were dismissed.

The eagerness for South Korean culture is also spreading to the market, where South Korean products are becoming more popular than relatively cheap Chinese products. The conceptions that South Korean clothes are best, and that South Korean electronics are as good as Japanese electronics, is spreading to North Korea’s upper class.

The popularity of South Korean culture is a source of concern for the authorities, who are trying to crack down on the trend. The search and confiscation of videos are photos of Korean stars are becoming prevalent in big cities, and supervision and regulations of South Korean products are becoming stricter, one North Korean refugee said.

Is this the first step towards real unification? I wouldn't hold my breath but it's a good sign.

Help North Koreans: Let them come to the ROK to work

(I think that this issue, along with the anti-unification tendencies of the Roh Moo-hyun government are my dead horses. I think I'll end up beating them until I'm dead too.)

I have been calling for a labor-exchange program between North and South Korea since the first post on this blog. I also talk regularly about why the two Koreas are resisting the idea.

Now we have more evidence that a labor-exchange program is a good idea. The amount that Hispanic immigrants and migrant workers in the USA send to their homelands is now almost 30 billion dollars. That compares to the 17.2 billion dollars that the US spends on foreign add to the whole world.

If the Norks would send down 200,000 workers (about half of South Korea's current foreign worker population) and they sent back 25% of the average $800-a-month 3D worker salary (which could be mandated by the exchange program rules), the North Korean economy would gain $480,000,000 annually. That compares to $56,000,000 that the USA and South Korea gave to North Korea in aid last year.

Other aspects of a labor-exchange program:
*-North Korea families would gain about three times (after taxes) the income that they would receive from workers at the 'Anti-Unification' Gaesong Industrial Complex (AUGIC).
*-A labor exchange program could begin as early as the summer of 2004, instead of the waiting for 2007 for AUGIC to fully kick in.
*-South Korean companies would not have as great a vested interest in keeping Korea divided, as they would with AUGIC
*-(for those of you who believe in such drivel, even after 9-11) Common North and South Koreans could interact with each other, creating greater trust between the Korean peoples.
*-A labor-exchange program would create jobs for 200,000 or more North Koreans within a few years rather than 150,000 after the third phase of AUGIC is completed at some undefined time in the future:

Depending on how Phase I goes and the expansion demands of resident companies, Phase II, (to be started two to five years later) and Phase III (between five and nine years) will be built to attract technology intensive light industries, heavy industries, and industrial equipment manufacturers. While barred from Phase I, foreign companies will be invited to locate in Phases II and III. Hyundai Asan projects that a total of 2,000 companies will locate in the complex, employing a workforce of 150,000 by the time Phase III is up and running.

Of course, a labor-exchange program will never happen. That level of interaction between normal Koreans would increase pressure on both Korean governments to honestly pursue unification, which neither wants to do. So we are stuck with the AUGIC, which is really just another back-door channel for pumping South Korean money into the Kim Jeong-il regime. That makes Kim Jeong-il and Roh Moo-hyun happy. It makes South Korean sweatshop owners happy.

Everybody wins except the Korean people.

Analysis of reunification policy in the Kim Dae-jung (and Roh Moo-hyun) administration: Part Four

(NOTE: I have received a request to make a PDF file of these four reunification articles and post it so that it would be easier to read or download. I don't have the tools for that on my computer. I will see what I can do over the weekend.)

In Part One, I gave a brief overview of the Sunshine policy and talked about Kim Dae-jung's time table for unification. In Part Two, I covered the unification experiences of Vietnam (Reunification by conquest) and Germany (Reunification by absorption). In Part Three, I reviewed the Hong Kong handover (The 'One country, many systems' approach) and the Yemeni unification and subsequent civil war (Yemen: Reunification by agreement).

In Part Four, I discuss what lessons can be drawn from the unification experiences of Vietnam, Germany, China and Yemen. I end Part Four and the article with a brief conclusion and bibliography (I know the bibliography is a bit skimpy, but I hammered this thing out in a hurry).

Here is a preview:

IV. Lessons for Korean unification
I deduced five lessons from the unification experiences of Vietnam, Germany, China and Yemen. While they may seem obvious, most of them have been ignored by the Kim and Roh (Moo-hyun) administrations. It was my work on this project a few years ago which put me on the path that eventually led me to the conclusion that the past two administrations have been anti-unification.

Those five lessons are:

A. Governments do not voluntarily give up sovereignty
This should really be a no-brainer. The acid test of any reunification plan is the moment when sovereignty passes from one or both the two Korean governments to a single body. In Yemen, everything was fine until the first post-unification elections in 1993. At that point, the Yemeni Socialist Party tried to break away from the union rather than give up its control of southern Yemen. That same lesson applies to Korea:

Under Kim's plan the crucial moment would be the change from confederation to federation. Kim's confederation would entail little loss of sovereignty aside from some trade and cultural agreements so it would have little more impact than that felt by members of the European Union. However, the plan calls for the Northern government to eventually give up it's position of authority while it still has the power to enforce it. There is little reason to believe that the Northern government would give up it's authority or the control of it's armed forces without heavier inducement than a tenuous hold on a regional government in a unified Korea.

B. Unification follows the destruction of one of the competing governments
This logically follows lesson A. However, attempting to directly destabilize the Pyongyang government could lead to Chinese intervention.

C. Windows of opportunity for unification may be narrow
It this section, I demonstrate how Germans and Yemenis "struck while the iron was hot." and quickly proceeded with unification when an opportunity presented itself:

Similarly, Korea must be prepared to quickly move towards unification whenever the opportunity arises. A scheme that inflexibly adheres to a long-term plan would be vulnerable to changing regional events.

D. Events and passions often move faster than governments
If the "wall" between the Koreas were opened even a little, it is likely that events would move faster than any government plans and the resulting rush towards unification would would destabilize one or both governments. This is the basic lesson from Germany's reunification.

E. Relationships should be created at multiple levels between the two governments and the fear of repercussions following unification should be reduced.
This is probably the one area of the Sunshine policy that I did not find fault in. There are amble reasons for North Korean government officials to fear unification:

During the 1950-53 war both sides committed terrible atrocities. Also, the trials of former presidents Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, despite promises not to do so, do little to reduce Northern fear of reprisals after unification(Drennan, 6).

Part of any unification policy should be a pledge not to seek large-scale retribution in a unified state. Multiple levels of contact between the Koreas should be sought to help ease the fear of unification by Northern officials.

V. Conclusion
(I'm getting sleepy, so I'll just quote the whole conclusion here.)

While President Kim's Sunshine policy has been successful in creating hope for peaceful coexistence between the two Koreas, the experiences of other nations gives little indication that it can succeed in the long term goal of peacefully and gradually reunifying the nation. In none of the instances did an established government voluntarily give up power and it would be unrealistic to expect the North Korean government to react differently.

Also, the balance required to chart a gradual path to unification would be almost impossible to maintain. The reliance on a relatively inflexible schedule would leave the plan vulnerable to internal forces which could hasten or dismantle the time frame. It would also depend on all relevant outside actors supporting Korean unification for several decades, a situation that is unlikely given the balance of forces and historical realities in the region.

Given these considerations, it is unlikely that the Sunshine policy will directly lead to it's stated objective of unification. That is not to say that president Kim's plan can't succeed; only that it is outside the realm of modern human experience.

However, Kim's policy could accomplish some goals towards unification. Any policy which eases tensions on the peninsula and brings the brings the two Koreas closer economically and politically, necessarily undermines the legitimacy of Korean division and by extension one of the two governments. Even small steps towards rapprochement could draw the historically, linguistically and ethnically homeogenous Korea people towards unification and sweep aside any government which opposes it.

While continuing to advocate gradual unification, the Kim administration should also prepare to move quickly when events warrant, including the taking of steps to support regime collapse in the North and to mitigate the consequences of that collapse. It could be another one of history's little ironies if a policy which specificly rejects the undermining of the Northern regime as a means of unification becomes the means of achieving that end.

If you have read the first three, don't stop now.