Goh Kun: A Korean Cincinnatus?

In case you missed it, the Korea Herald ran a piece a couple of days ago about the popularity of former prime minister Goh Kun.  Well, here it is (I'll also copy it in the continuation before it gets lost in the black hole of the Herald's old articles.).

Who is Goh Kun?

Goh Kun is a former prime minister, governor of South Cholla Province, two-time mayor of Seoul, three-time cabinet member (transportation, agriculture and government administration) and of course, acting president during President Roh's impeachment (as if we could forget).

Goh has earned a couple of monikers during his long public career. 

Many Koreans know him by the less than exciting nickname of "Master of Administration."  He was a technocrat in a government dominated by political hacks.  Another nickname is "Mr. Stability." He is understated in a political environment dominated by demagogues.  He is basically a guy who advanced in Korean politics by being basically competent and not rocking the boat (kind of like Colin Powell).  He is also known as "2ID Goh" at one IKK blog because he was the guy the Korean government seny to talk with USFK officials whenever there was a problem.

What is the deal with Goh Kun?

Despite the fact that he has not been very active since he resigned as prime minister last May, recent polls rank him above the Grand National Party's (GNP) Park Geun-hye and Our Open Party's (OOP) Chung Dong-young (the current Anti-Unification Minister).  The Herald piece gives a couple of reasons for Goh's popularity:

"Under the present circumstances, people tend to hope for a type of leader who can stay neutral and be free of political ambitions," said Professor Park Ho-rae of Tamra University. "Goh was known to have carried out his duties quietly but firmly. Thus, people who are tired of the present 'noisy' politics would give more marks to Goh, who is seen by the public as quiet but reliable."

In a way, Goh's popularity mirrors people's dissatisfaction toward the government and politics, said professor Park. "The more the public feel discontent toward the present (state of) politics, the more they would want someone like Goh as the next president."

But that quote also exposes the problem of a potential Goh run for president.  A big part of Goh's popularity is that many Koreans see him as a kind of Cincinnatus; someone who wants to serve Korea and who is without political ambition for himself.  Were he to run for the presidency, he would be at least partially undercutting the very thing that makes him popular with the Korean people in the first place.

The other problem is that Park and Chung seem have the inside track (if not a lock) on their parties' nominations for the 2007 election.  While Korea is not quite a two-party system like the US (yet), the GNP and OOP control most of the money and organizational muscle on the right and left end of Korean politics today.

Sometimes dreams don't come true.

As many people know, these kinds of 'dream candidacies' more often than not end in a bust.  Many Democrats saw General Wesley Clark (who led the 'illegal' war in Kosovo) as the perfect man to take the White House and started a draft Clark campaign, but once he threw his hat in the ring his campaign sputtered and he dropped out early. 

Koreans also remember the candidacy of Chung Mong-joon, the man who brought the World Cup to Korea.  He started off strong and was an early favorite for the Millennium Democratic Party nomination eventually won by Roh Moo-hyun.  His political alliance with Roh Moo-hyun during the 2002 presidential election could have set him up as a political king-maker and the early favorite for president in 2007. 

But his withdrawal of support for Roh just before the election and Roh's subsequent victory marginalized Chung.  Chung was the only person from his now defunct party elected to the Kuk Hoi this year.

Can 'President Goh' be made a reality?

So, given the political minefields that must be negotiated and the contradictions inherent in Goh actively campaigning for president, how can a Goh presidency be a reality?

First of all, forget a 'draft Goh' campaign in the general election.  For one thing, a campaign without a candidate can't build a big enough war chest to sustain it.  Also, a large and active 'draft Goh' campaign would split the the vote on the right and ensure that the OOP candidate won.  So clearly, if you are going to have a campaign to draft Goh, you will need to do it during the GNP nominating process. 

Park Geun-hye is the clear GNP front runner right now but she has enough enemies among more conservative members of the party that she probably won't be able to get the nomination without a fight.  On the other hand, while they might be able to wound her it seems doubtful, baring some major scandal,  that anyone will be able to displace her.

It is during the in-fighting for the GNP nomination that a draft Goh campaign could succeed.  What would be needed is some cryptic words from Goh about 'not seeking' the nomination and a well-organized campaign to give it to him.  If timed right, the campaign could hand the GNP nomination to Goh, who would 'humbly and reluctantly' accept the nomination.  After five years of Roh Moo-hyun and three of an OOP-controlled Kuk Hoi, the general election should be a cakewalk.

Such a draft Goh campaign needs to be run by someone intelligent with a lot of ambition; someone who is has some pull in the GNP but who currently lacks the gravitas to rally sufficient support for himself; someone who wants the top job but who is young enough to wait his turn until 2012.  Who fits the bill?

Ladies and gentlemen...

I give you Park Jin.

(For a little more on Park Jin in English, see here.)

And now for six kilos of salt

I don't think that anyone will see this piece for anything but the wild speculation that it is but I guess I need to give this warning just in case:  Clearly, there are a lot of hypotheticals in this piece and any number of things could derail a draft Goh candidacy:

-Park Geun-hye could crush all opposition early.

-She could be strong enough in the GNP to beat 'dravt Goh' (it being hard to beat somebody with nobody).

-2007 a cakewalk for the GNP?  People thought the same thing in early 2002.

-Goh is no spring chicken.  Maybe the era of geriatric leaders in Korea is over.

-Park Jin might not want to wait until 2012 for his shot or he might not like Goh Kun.

-(the biggie)  When Goh kun indicates that he doesn't want the job, maybe, just maybe, he really doesn't want the job.

Like I said, this is pure speculation.  But wasn't it fun?

Sidebar:  Who was Cincinnatus?

Cincinnatus is one of those guys most Americans should have heard of but haven't.  Here is a bit about him: 

In 458 Cincinnatus was appointed dictator at Rome in order to rescue a consular army that was surrounded by the Aequi on Mount Algidus. When the call to duty came up he was found working his small farm. He accepted the request of the Senate to lead the Roman Army. He defeated the enemy in a single day and celebrated a triumphant return to Rome. Cincinnatus maintained his authority only long enough to bring Rome through the emergency; a mere fifteen days. He then resigned and went back to his farm.

Having total power and giving it up to go back to the farm; I believe that qualifies Cincinnatus as one of the great studs of history.  The American connection is our own George Washington was regarded as an American Cincinnatus for refusing to take power after the American War for Independence and for later voluntarily leaving the presidency after two terms in office.

Here is the original article from the Korea Herald (December 21, 2004):

More than six months have passed since former Prime Minister Goh Kun left the world of politics and shut himself off from public view, but polls taken recently point to him as the most eligible next occupant of Cheong Wa Dae after President Roh Moo-hyun.

With hopefuls from the ruling and the opposition parties already stepping up political contacts in an effort to bid for the presidency in the 2007 election, Goh's public popularity is a mystery.

Aside from the fact that he has not appeared before the public since he resigned in May, he had never shown any ambition to be president even when he acting in the job while Roh was under impeachment.

A poll taken this month by World Research showed nearly 30 percent of 1,000 adults surveyed nationwide favored Goh to be the next president. Park Geun-hye, chairwoman of the main opposition Grand National Party, came second with 18 percent - a surprising large gap.

"I still remember how well Goh carried out the president's duties after the presidential impeachment. I think the nation needs someone like him who can put aside his own ambitions for the sake of the nation in the president's seat," said 24-year-old Ahn Ji-hun.

But most lawmakers regard Goh's popularity - reflected to varying degrees in other polls besides World Research - as a passing phase.

People remember Goh's past good works, and the fact that he resigned right after finishing his duties as the acting president probably solidified his popularity. But I personally don't think it will last for long," said a lawmaker of the ruling Uri Party, requesting anonymity.

Political experts, on the other hand, see Goh's popularity as a "reverse effect" of the public's frustration over the endless power struggle between politicians of the rival Uri and GNP.

"Under the present circumstances, people tend to hope for a type of leader who can stay neutral and be free of political ambitions," said Professor Park Ho-rae of Tamra University. "Goh was known to have carried out his duties quietly but firmly. Thus, people who are tired of the present 'noisy' politics would give more marks to Goh, who is seen by the public as quiet but reliable."

In a way, Goh's popularity mirrors people's dissatisfaction toward the government and politics, said professor Park. "The more the public feel discontent toward the present (state of) politics, the more they would want someone like Goh as the next president."

Goh began his political career in 1975 as governor of South Jeolla Province at the age of 37.

He earned the nickname "master of administration" in his 30-year public service carerer that included Seoul City mayor and minister, respectively, of agriculture, transportation and government administration, prime minister and, finally, as acting president.

Goh's ability, built from his long experience, shone particularly during the 64 days he was acting president after President Roh was impeached and suspended from office in April pending the Constitutional Court ruling that allowed him to take oevr again at Cheong Wa Dae.

The public approved of Goh's composed attitude and the moderate measures he took during his stewardship of the nation because they played a big role in stabilizing the nation after the turmoil over Roh's impeachment.

Some opposition lawmakers said - although many saw this as more a critcism of Roh than a compliment to Goh - that the nation was much more "at peace" under the acting president.

After successfully completing his duty as Roh's proxy, Goh resigned. He kept silent about the reason, but experts say that as a moderate-conservative politician, Goh was probably uncomfortable over Roh's much more progressive policy line.

Professor Hwang Sang-min of Yonsei University analyzed that a lot of Goh's popularity was due to the contrast between his and the president's images.

"Goh's image to the public is related to words like stableness, credence and composure while the president is seen as strong, progressive but unstable," Hwang said. "Thus, Goh's image seems to appeal to people disappointed by Roh's policies."

Regardless of his merits, Goh's chance of actually becoming the next president is seen as very slim due to the fact that he is no longer in a position to seize political power.

"Goh not only lacks the chance of finding a political line of aides to prepare for the next presidential election, but he also lacks the determination to push his opinions through," said professor Park. "The characteristics to win the presidency are lacking."

He said it is quite plausible to expect a more conservative administration to come into power after 2007, judging by the popularity enjoyed by Goh.

"Goh's popularity can be seen as the people's desire for a more experienced leader, and a more conservative and stable government," he said. "Those who have been disappointed by Roh's progressive measures that led to much turmoil may cast votes on a more experienced and prudent candidate, like Goh."

(hayney@heraldm.com)

By Shin Hae-in

2004.12.21

Comments

[Gerry Bevers]

Impressive post, Yangban.

[CTDeLude]

Yea, quite. I believe I had heard something about Cincinnatus before but never knew the details. I'm certainly impressed.

Thanks

[Juggertha]

Goh Kun is too old. It's as simple as that. I do not believe he will run in the next election.

I am less worried about who the GNP fields than I am about any "odd occurance" that might happen before the election to sway the publics opinion (and we know how quickly the public can be moved).

[Sperwer]

Possibly interesting footnote.

A couple of years ago The American Chmaber of Commerce in Korea instituted an award to honor the individual who had done the most in the past year to promote the liberalization of the Korean economy and faciliate foreign investment, especially FDI. The first winner was Han Duk Soo , who was an indefatigable champion of FDI and of foreign investors during his tenure in various govt positions.

The hand-down favorite for this year's award was Goh, who was to have been presented with the award at the so-called Korean Government Appreciation Dinnder that Amcham also began at the time of the inaugural award to Han. This year, at the last minute, though, Amcham received strong signals from the Roh administration that Roh wanted to speak at the dinner in order to mend his fences with the foreign business community. For that purpose, it also was strongly suggested that the Amcham event be transformed into an omnibus affair also involving the EUCCK and the Japan Club.

Unsurprisingly, it was also made clear, and in any event AMCHAM rather pusillanimously on its own - in the interest of "access" -- dropped the award presentation from the event - whose princiapl raison d'etre was the award -- so that Roh wouldn't be upstaged by Goh. In addition to whatever moves earned him the sobriquet "2ID Goh", he also pretty much single-handedly kept the foreign business community from panicking during the impeachment crisis.