The Yangban’s US presidential election post

Let the fun begin.

This will be my running Yangban commentary section on the US presidential election.

My prediction:
Everyone else is doing it so why not me. Here is my call:
Popular vote:
Bush: 49% Kerry 47% (These are the same numbers I've been telling people since about June. I see no reason to change now.)
Electoral College:
Bush: 279 Kerry: 259 (I have everything the same as 2000 except Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Bush picks up New Mexico).

Bush takes an early lead in New Hampshire
Two communities in New Hampshire have already completed their voting for the 2004 presidential election. Dixville Notch went for president Bush while Hart’s Location was tied.

HART’S LOCATION, N.H. - The nation’s first Election Day votes were cast and counted just after midnight Tuesday in this mountain hamlet, with President Bush and John Kerry each receiving 15 votes. Ralph Nader received one.

Minutes later, the 26 registered voters in Dixville Notch, about 50 miles to the north, split 19 for Bush and 7 for Kerry.

Cool. We even had a little "Nader factor" with Nader talking one pink vote away from Kerry in Hart's Location.

Kerry did two votes better than Gore did in both communities.

Puncture one election truism
One thing that many pundits count on is the believe that undecided voters tend to break about 2-to-1 in favor of the challenger. This year seems to be an exception:

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

On the other hand, this may mean that increased early voting may have helped Kerry.

Time for bed. More coverage tomorrow morning (Tuesday night in the US)....

....I'm back.

The count has started
The first fifteen minutes of returns has President Bush ahead but that is meaningless since they are from Indian and Kentucky, two states Bush should carry easily.

I wish I could just sit in front of my computer all day. Alas, I have 7 hours of classes to teach and I have to take a physical today, so my coverage will be thin.

9:02 Races I'm watching
(Brian at Cathartidae has a good idea about posting times and I'm going to follow his lead. All times are in Korea.)

I'm following the election at the FOX News web site (where else?) and I'm taking advantage of their "Track your race" system to follow some of the races that I think will be the most interesting. My list includes Senate races in Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Colorado and Alaska.

I'm also going to be following the South Dakota race for the US house. Stephanie Herseth is one of the few Democrats that I could see myself supporting. She is relatively conservative (she won the endorsement of the NRA) and she was recently voted to be the best-looking woman in Congress.

9:26 Arrrrgggh!
Time for class. I'm generally a conscientious teacher but today's classes are going to get cut short. If you want serious live blogging of this thing, go elsewhere.

Bush is up 56% to 43% right now but most of those returns are from 'red states.' I'm still calling it for Bush 49-47.

11:02 It's tight man, real tight.
Bush is still way up in the popular vote and seems to be cruising in Florida, but Kerry has jumped out into an early lead in Ohio. Man, could this thing really come down to Hawaii?

Now, Bush is in a slight lead in Ohio. If he takes Ohio and Florida, it will be time for the fat lady to start warming up.

No matter which way this thing goes, I have to admit that this is the coolest election I've seen in my short time on this Earth. Strongly divergent positions, high interest and very, very close; cool.

11:18 Changing coverage
FOX is a little slow, so I'm also checking out the Wapo's coverage. On the other hand, fast coverage is what got the networks in trouble last time.

Ohio is still looking strong for Bush, but the suburban precincts (which tend to vote Republican) might be getting their counts in a little faster than the city precincts.

11:34 Still a race in PA
At first glance I thought that Kerry had put Pennsylvania away early since he was up by more than 2-to-1. But then I noticed that Alrlen Specter (who is going to win easily) was also getting creamed. Those early results are from Democrat strongholds.

12:07 The Press
I just got my first media call (I'm executive director for Republicans Abroad-Korea) from the Korea Herald asking about my reaction to the early results.

Please note, I did not compare Kim Dae-jung with Saddam Hussein. I simply said that he put up Saddam-like numbers in the Cholla provinces when he ran for president in '97.

Still watching the returns, munching on bread for lunch.

12:16 I'm calling Florida
With 78% of the precincts reporting, Bush is up by over 250,000 votes in Florida. The media would have called it for Bush by now if not for what happened there in 2004. I have no such scruples. I'm calling it for Bush.

12:32 Arrrrgggh! Part Two
Time for class.

12:57 Kerry gets one
I worked out something with the students. They will join me on Friday afternoon.

Kerry has officially picked up Pennsylvania. That is the first battleground state to be called. Bush is still ahead in all of the other battlegrounds except New Hampshire.

We still have some more fun in store.

1:06 How's this for drama?
Polls in California just closed and the state was immediately called for Kerry. The electoral count is now 199 for Bush and 188 for Kerry. I like it.

One thing I am enjoying is watching the folks at the Daily Kos squirm. They are a good source of information but they are also a bunch of jerks, so enjoy it every time they have to eat a little humble pie. I can see that they are starting to feel the end.

1:25 Best Electoral map
The electoral map that I'm referencing the most is from Yahoo. It's simple and includes leaners.

Still no call on Florida.

1:51 Other IKK blogs are also covering this election.
I already told you that Cathartidae was covering the vote. I just found out that Jeff at RIK is covering the election as well.

1:59 BOOM! (Part One)
Florida has finally been called for Bush. The margin is too big (over 300,000 votes with 97% of precincts reporting) for Kerry to even think about challenging the results.

Now it all comes down to Ohio, where Bush is up by about 135.000 votes with 68% of the precincts reporting.

2:24 With Florida in the clear, which state will be Florida in 2004?
Most pundits that I have read say that Ohio will most likely be the site of any post-vote legal challenges.

That will depend on the final results. Right now, Bush is up 51-48. If one candidate is up by 40,000 votes or less when the regular ballots are counted, then we could have problems. Otherwise, I don't think either candidate would choose to put the country through the rigger again by making a long-shot challenge (Yes, I do believe that both guys have the country's best interest at heart.)

There are two sources of late-counted votes.

1. Provitional ballots: About 100,000 provisional ballots will be counted for people who went to the wrong place to vote or who are not on the list. Even if you assume that the dummy vote will break 2-to-1 for Kerry, that will only get him another 34,000 votes.

2. Absentees: These traditionally break Republican, but this year things could be different. Give Kerry 5,000 more votes just for the sake of argument.

There you have it: 39,000 more potential Kerry votes. So, if Bush is ahead by 40,000 or more votes when all the precincts have reported; game over man.

2:42 Arrrrgggh! Part Three
Yet another class. Can't these people see that I'm busy?

4:07 BOOM! (Part Two)
Ohio has been called for Bush. He now has 269 electoral votes. With Republicans in control of the US House, he doesn't need any more Electoral votes to keep the White House.

Break out the fork and stick it in the fat lady. This one is over.

I guess there is no more point in live blogging this thing.

4:25 Maybe this thing will get dragged out after all.
The Democrats are desperately trying to get the fork out of Kerry's back. Here is a statement from the Kerry folks:

“The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio.”

When I said that both guys cared too much for the country to put us trough the rigger, perhaps I was wrong about Kerry.

BTW, I lifted that from the Daily Kos. I love just watching them squirm. Little wiggly worms they are.

5:40 Carl Rove is a god
I think I'm going to start a cult to worship Carl Rove, if for no other reason than that fact that he seems to have completely mesmerized the Dems. Check this out:

I have said it before - Karl Rove is a black magician. He is an illusionist. His work involves management of perception and creation of the desired beliefs in the masses more than anything else. He is very good at it.

And:

Rove has pulled a Jedi mind trick. I'd go so far as to say I suspect the gloom and doom from the Bush camp were a setup, making us "expect" a landslide.

Anyone who can so completely befuddle his opponents must be a god.

Comments

[Jeff in Korea]

Ohio was called for Bush. It's a done deal.

[eeyore]

4 more years Baby!
4 more years!
Yeah! Baby! Yeah!

[Morgan]

Haha, Bush just gave the the Left another mega wedgie and hooked the elastic band over their ears. heehee