Sorry if this post is just stating the obvious, but I just want to cover it before I start moving on from the recent election.
Both the United Liberal Democrats and the Millennium Democratic Party took a beating in the election. The question for both of them is "what next?"
Stick a fork in Kim Jong-pil, he's finally done
Kim Jong-pil, the last of the "Three Kims" (along with former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam) took responsibility for the ULD's defeat and resigned as party chairman. With the party founder out of the picture and little prospect of a comeback for the party, ULD members seem to have little choice about what to do; it's Hanaradang (GNP) or bust.
With only four members in the next National Assembly, they have little hope of pursuing their agenda or surviving the next elections in 2008. They need to fold themselves into a large organization in order to hold on to the few seats that they have. As the ULD is probably the most conservative party in the assembly, the center-right GNP is their natural new home.
There only seems to be two questions: when to join the GNP and what to do with Rhee In-jae. My guess is that the ULD will hold out for a while (maybe even a year or two) in order to try to make sure that ULD members get first shot at GNP nominations in Chungcheong in 2008. However, things could speed up a bit if there are several by-elections in Chungcheong in the coming months. If that happens, then the ULD and GNP may both see a need for a quick merger.
One problem is what to do with Rhee In-jae. The GNP may reluctantly take him back but there is certainly no love for him among party faithful. In fact many hate his guts for costing GNP candidate Lee Hoi-chang the presidential election in 1997.
Is three a crowd on the political left?
The situation for the MDP is more interesting. They are a little bigger (having won some proportional seats) but are probably in much greater shock due to the recent results since they were Korea's largest party just five years ago (somebody correct me if I'm wrong on that one).
Their most obvious options are folding into Uri or sticking it out until the next elections. Uri has apparently already put out feelers towards MDP legislators about switching. Some of them may decide to make the switch in order to protect their political future. However, unlike the ULD, the MDP has four proportional seats so they can't be completely taken over unless they agree to fold.
If their nerves hold, they could take a long-term plan towards rebuilding. Once fissures appear in Uri's ad-hoc coalition (I give it about 8-12 months, less if things get ugly in Iraq), the MDP might be able to strip off dissatisfied members of whichever faction loses Uri's in-fighting. With a few more seats taken that way, they can concentrate on their base in Cholla (along with some Gyeonggi districts) in 2008 to give them 50-70 seats in the 18th Assembly.
I see three main problems with that plan.
1) They will have to hold together under considerable pressure to fold into Uri. The fact that members of the two parties hate each other might make it easier but opportunity heals political wounds and Uri has already shown that it is indeed an "open" party.
2) They will have to wait to define themselves until after Uri's factional crisis. They would need to be flexible enough to welcome either moderates or liberals, depending on which Uri faction loses out. That could be difficult since the the MDP may have to define itself soon in order to protect the few seats that it holds. Also, Uri's paper-thin majority in the National Assembly might make them gloss over internal differences in order to maintain power.
3) They would have to make and stick to a four-year plan. That takes a long more patience than most politicians posses.
There is a third way that would be the most intriguing, if the least likely. They could form an alliance with the DLP, either as legislative partners or as a combined new party. There would be a lot of obstacles to face, not the least of which would be potential ideological divides between the two groups. However, a MDP-DLP bonding does have advantages.
1) The DLP's strength in South Gyeongsang would compliment the MDP's Cholla base.
2) MDP members would moderate some of the DLP's more socialistic tendencies and make them more appealing to moderate voters.
3) The new party would have a viable niche in Korean politics along with the center-right GNP and the leftist-to-moderate Uri party.
4) This is the biggie: The new party would have 19 seats in the National Assembly, only one shy of a floor negotiating group (which would allow them to draft legislation and gives them more public funds).
Like I said, that third way is not likely (I'm sure somebody can give a list of reasons why it is impossible), it would certainly be interesting.
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