Uri wins! GNP places! Everyone else sucks!

It looks like the party of the children will have an outright majority in the National Assembly (at least until the results of up to 100 by-elections to replace those who campaigned illegally).

Once again, The Korea Times has great coverage. Here are their latest projections:

Uri: 150
GNP: 122
MDP: 9
DLP: 9
ULD: 4
Others: 3

Winners and losers
Uri will have the chance to show their stuff with an outright majority. They have moved considerably towards the center over the last few months and have become the party of all-things-to-all-people (except Gyeongsang people). I suspect that they will also pick up a couple of the MDP's officials over the next few weeks. The wide-ranging ideological divide might make it difficult to govern effectively but they might snap into shape once Roh gets back in office.

The GNP took a dumb gamble on impeaching Roh (yeah, he's a crook but who isn't) and got spanked for it. But they will live to fight another day. Now that they are the minority party, they will be free to mercilessly pick away at Uri like a real opposition party. This time in the political wilderness (even if it is not for four years) could also help them continue the reforms started under Park Geun-hye.

The Democratic Labor Party only picked up 9 seats but that should be enough for them to be even more competitive in the next round of elections.

But the MDP were the big losers. The question now is if they will even stick around or just dissolve themselves.

No regionalism?
I was called to task by a friend of mine for saying that Uri was a Cholla-based party. After these results, I guess I have to take my words back. In fact, Uri is a Cholla/Chungcheong-based party. Or should I get old-school and call them a Paekche-based party?

That is basically what we have here now. Uri is the new south-west party while the GNP maintained its dominance in the south-east. And once again, Gyeonggi was the land of the swing votes. This time they swung for Uri. Next time? Who knows, especially after Roh comes back and reminds everyone why he managed to get his butt impeached in the first place

Two races of note
(Links to Chosun Ilbo Korean pages)

In one of the most watched races, Seoul-Jongo, Park Jin (GNP) holds a slight lead (43.3% to 41.9%) with 97% of the votes counted. So it looks like the legislature will have the services of his maximum lobes for another four years. The MDP candidate won 11% of the vote in Jongo but I don't think there was much of a "Nader factor" there. Considering the bad blood between the MDP and Uri, I don't think there would have been much of a cross-over between the two. (UPDATE: It's been called. Park Jin wins.)

In Ansan-Sangnok-Gu (Lady Yangban's district) Uri candidate Im Jong-in won in a rout. Her parents (proud Gyeongsang people) said that so many people in their neighborhood speak with a Cholla accent that they were afraid to openly voice their support of the GNP. There might be an interesting study here. It could be that the uneven economic development under Park Chung-hee might have come back to bite his daughter's party in the butt as Cholla's relative underdevelopment might have caused proportionately more Cholla people to move up to Gyeonggi (Seoul area) in search of jobs.

What does this mean for the Norks and Americans?
We can expect more love between Seoul and Pyeongyang but I don't think it will translate into much beyond the current anti-unification projects going on now.

As for the Iraq deployment, pro-dispatch parties now hold about 275 of 299 seats (although there is some division in Uri, of course), so we can expect that it will proceed.

Comments

[Brian]

Andy, does the Korean laws regarding political parties still have that clause about parties needing a certain number of seats to qualify for public funding? If so, I think the MDP just fell below the threshold.

When the ULD found themselves in the same spot a few years ago, they "borrowed" a few lawmakers from the GNP, making sure they got the funding. Could the GNP put a few more seats on loan like that, or is the gap between the GNP and URI too wide?

Brian

[The Yangban]

I don't know about the public financing, although a party needs at least 20 seats to form a "Floor Negotiating Group" or something like that. I presume that would entail getting some more public money to have a party office.

With Kim Jong-pil out of a job (he was on their proporsional list and they got less than 3%), the ULD might just fold their tents and join the GNP. Similarly, we might see moves by Uri to bring in the last MDP legislators. That would leave only three major parties (those two and the Democratic Labor Party).

But that is just a guess.

[Brian]

Yea, that was it, a "floor negotiation group." But I think some public funding comes along with such a designation.

I was gonna make some joke about where Rhh In-jae would go if the ULD folds, but, as I'm sure you know, there is no such thing as burnt bridges in Korean politics. He could easily wind up back in the GNP or as part of the URi party.

Brian

[T]

"The election laws stipulate that a lawmaker should be move out of position if they are found to have paid more than 1 million won in illegal election funds."

So, up to 1 million won in illegal election funds is OK?

[The Yangban]

T,

For a lot of violations, the candidate would have to pay a fine of up to 50 times what he spent.

So, for example, a guy convicted of spending 500,000 won may have to pay a fine of up to 25,000,000 won (about $20,000).