Impeachment: What will happen next?

[UPDATE: I just want to point out that nobody should panic. While at least one Alglophone Korean blogger worries about this being the first step of a coup, we are in the middle of a constitutionally-regulated procedure that will be played out over the next several weeks or months. There is no reason for anyone to hit the panic button.

One interesting possibility would be for the National Assembly to amend the constitution to a parliamentary system, as Orackay points out, they have the votes to do it.

But it would be the latest dumb move in a series of dumb moves that have led to the current crisis. Certainly, you can make changes to your constitution during times of crisis (why make changes if things are going well?), but I can't see any way for the General Assembly to do that in a way that passes the smell test. People will smell a rat and vote accordingly in the next election.

That would produce an OOP (Our Open Party) majority in the next assembly.

Say what you will about Roh, he was elected by the whole country. It is also well-known that Executives "mature" in office and Roh was no exception (just look at his changing positions on the deployment to Iraq and relations with the USA). You wouldn't have that same dynamic in a parliamentary system. If the OOP got a majority in a parliamentary system, we would basically have the 'Prime Minister' of Cholla and Seoul' running the country. It wouldn't be any better under the Grand National Party. I suspect that a Korean parliamentary system would look less like Britain and more like Italy, with rapid changes in governments and little getting done.

So my hope is that the Constitutional Court puts Roh back in charge, that the opposition parties take their lumps in the next election (it'll only be for one cycle anyway) and let everybody get to the business of running the government: Pave the streets, send the troops to Iraq, work on this Nork business and then go home content with a hard day's work.

OK that was the "update." Here is the "main post:"]

Over at CNN, they'll listed the procedures for impeachment (hat tip to the Marmot for the link which led to the link). Here they are:

1. A simple majority of the 273-seat National Assembly must register an impeachment motion with the single-chamber parliament.

(The main opposition Grand National Party and smaller Millennium Democratic Party did this on Tuesday with 159 signatures out of a possible 206)

2. Twenty-four hours later, the motion can be introduced to the chamber and voted on. A two-thirds majority of the occupied seats (180 votes) is needed to approve the bill.

(The opposition could introduce the bill from 0930 GMT on Wednesday and then vote on it. The bill will expire 72 hours after registration, in other words at 0930 GMT on Friday. It is possible to send the bill to committee or vote on it directly)

3. If approved by two-thirds of parliament, the impeachment bill must be examined at a Constitutional Court hearing where some of the members of parliament would act as "prosecutors." The parliamentary vote must be upheld by six out of the nine Constitutional Court judges.

(The judges are appointed by the president but three must be parliamentary nominees and another three must be nominated by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Their deliberations could take up to six months -- the court has 180 days to deliver its ruling once the impeachment vote is registered with it.)

4. The president's powers are suspended from the moment the bill is passed in parliament until the Constitutional Court rules. In the meantime, the prime minister runs the country.

(Goh Kun, a veteran bureaucrat, is Roh's prime minister)

5. If the court upholds parliament's decision, the president is stripped of his office.

(Impeachment does not necessarily involve criminal proceedings. The National Election Commission ruled Roh had violated election law but the transgression did not warrant criminal proceedings.)

6. A fresh presidential election would have to be held within 60 days of the president being removed from office.

Note: Given no president has been impeached, even parliamentary officials are unsure how some of the procedures should work.

We have just seen steps 1 through 4 this week and now have to wait for the decision of the Korean Constitutional Court.

UPDATE 2: The Korea Times has a good article on what to expect in the trial phase of impeachment. Kim Ki-choon (GNP) will present the National Assembly's case to the Constitutional Court. Both Kim and President Roh will be called on for oral questioning at some point.

While Constitutional Court head Yun Young-chul said that they would proceed quickly, some legal experts say that it may take longer than the mandated 180 days to get through the case because there are no legal precedents to guide the court.

Also, note this:

The impeachment prosecutor will be replaced by the next chairperson of the legislature and judiciary committee, to be appointed after the April 15 general elections.

This is interesting. If the OOP wins in next month's elections, you can count on the prosecutor for the case being less than enthusiastic.